Giorgia Meloni’s Italy: Democratic backsliding or stable governance?

Three years into Giorgia Meloni’s tenure as Italy’s prime minister, a sharp debate is dividing the country — and Brussels. Her coalition government, built on an alliance between her own Brothers of Italy party, Matteo Salvini’s League, and Forza Italia, has drawn sustained accusations of chipping away at Italy’s democratic guardrails. Critics say the pressure is real, systematic, and accelerating as the 2027 elections draw closer.

The judiciary under fire

The most explosive flashpoint has been the courts. Meloni’s government has pushed for a constitutional reform that would separate the careers of judges and prosecutors — a change opponents say is designed to weaken an independent judiciary that has historically kept Italian politicians accountable. The proposal has sparked street protests in Rome and Milan, with tens of thousands marching in October 2024 alone. Magistrates’ associations have called it the most significant threat to judicial independence since the Berlusconi era. The government insists it’s simply modernising a system that’s been dysfunctional for decades. But the timing, just as several cases touching government allies wind through the courts, has raised uncomfortable questions.

Media pressure and the RAI question

Italy’s public broadcaster RAI has become a battleground. Several prominent journalists and hosts have resigned or been quietly sidelined since 2022, citing editorial interference. Reporters Without Borders ranked Italy 46th in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index — not catastrophic, but a slide that journalists’ unions say reflects a real chill. One senior RAI journalist, speaking anonymously for fear of professional repercussions, put it bluntly: “You learn quickly which stories cause problems. Nobody has to tell you twice.”

And it’s not just RAI. Independent outlets have reported difficulties accessing government press briefings, while new rules proposed in late 2024 would grant the executive greater say over broadcasting licences.

Migrants and the Mattei Plan’s contradictions

On migration, Meloni has pursued an aggressively restrictive approach. Her government’s deal with Albania to process asylum seekers offshore has been blocked repeatedly by Italian courts — exactly the kind of judicial friction the government’s reform agenda would make harder to sustain. Around 158,000 migrants arrived in Italy by sea in 2023. The numbers dropped in 2024, which the government claimed as a victory, though NGOs attribute the decline partly to dangerous pushback agreements with Libya and Tunisia.

What comes next

With elections due by early 2027, Meloni’s government is unlikely to ease up. If anything, analysts expect the reform agenda to intensify, particularly if Brothers of Italy maintains its polling lead — currently hovering around 29 percent nationally.

Still, Italy’s institutions have proven resilient before. The Constitutional Court, a genuinely independent press, and an engaged civil society remain significant checks on executive power.

Whether they’ll be enough — that’s the question hanging over Rome right now.