China’s economy grows 4.5 percent in Q3, beating forecasts
China’s economy expanded by 4.5 percent in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, according to official data released Monday. That’s up from 4.3 percent growth in the second quarter and ahead of most analyst forecasts. The National Bureau of Statistics also reported that GDP grew 4.6 percent in the first nine months of the year.
Exports drive growth amid weak domestic demand
Tech-related exports have surged amid an AI boom, helping to offset sluggish domestic consumption and a property market that’s still shrinking. Exports rose 16 percent in the first three quarters to 23.19 billion yuan ($3.47 billion), driven by semiconductors and other tech goods. But retail sales grew just 1.1 percent in September from a year earlier, and fixed asset investment fell 7.2 percent in the first nine months.
Industrial production, however, rose 5.5 percent in September and 5.3 percent in the first three quarters. Zhiguo He, a finance professor at Stanford University, said Beijing is getting the 4.5 percent growth it wanted. “A managed slow slowdown is the best Beijing can hope for,” he told Al Jazeera. He added that the real estate contraction is intentional and households are adapting their expectations. The Communist Party has set a growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, among the slowest in decades excluding the pandemic. He said China is on track to hit official targets, but Beijing is wary of relying too much on export-driven growth.
