Are we ready for the next gas crisis? Europe’s energy security in 2026

Europe begins the summer with gas storage at 62 percent — comfortably above the 5-year average for this time of year, and well ahead of the 90 percent target mandated for 1 November. The narrative around the bloc’s energy security has shifted decisively since the worst months of 2022.

And yet a closer look at the fundamentals reveals continuing structural fragility. LNG import capacity has grown impressively, but the bloc remains a price-taker in a global market that has tightened as Asian demand recovers. Domestic production is in irreversible decline.

The strategic question for the Commission is not whether the lights will stay on next winter — they almost certainly will — but whether the structural drivers of European competitiveness can survive sustained gas prices two to three times higher than the US benchmark.

That is the conversation that the post-2027 energy strategy must address.