Eurostat: Fragile Industrial Rebound, Still Down 2.1% YoY

Industrial production in the euro area rose by 0.2% and in the EU as a whole by 0.8% in March 2026 compared with February, according to first estimates published by Eurostat on Tuesday 13 May 2026. The data confirm a fragile sequential recovery — but the annual comparison remains firmly negative, with output down 2.1% in the euro area and 1.0% in the EU compared with March 2025.

The breakdown by main grouping

Intermediate goods production increased by 0.9%, capital goods by 1.1%, and durable consumer goods by 0.5%. Energy production fell by 1.5%, reflecting lower demand from milder spring weather and continued constraints on Russian gas imports. The deepest fall was in non-durable consumer goods, down 4.5%.

Member-State picture

The largest monthly increases were recorded in Denmark (+8.4%), Bulgaria (+5.8%) and Poland (+5.4%). The largest decreases were in Belgium (-3.0%), Estonia (-2.6%) and Sweden (-1.9%). The annual comparison paints a starker picture: the largest YoY falls were in Ireland (-19.4%), Luxembourg (-5.7%) and Malta. Among the larger Member States, Germany and Italy continue to bear the brunt of the energy shock.

Revisions and trajectory

The release also includes notable revisions: the monthly change for February 2026 has been revised from +0.4% to +0.2% in both the euro area and the EU. Successive downward revisions like these suggest the initial April print, due in mid-June, will also be subject to material adjustment.

Policy implications

The Commission’s Spring 2026 Economic Forecast is due on 21 May 2026. The ECB, in its March 2026 projections, had already revised the euro area 2026 growth forecast down to 0.9% from 1.2%, and the 2026 inflation forecast up to 2.6% from 1.9%. The next ECB meeting on 4 June will be the first to fully integrate post-Iran-war data.