El Niño warning: UN flags ‘supersized’ disruption risk for 2024
The United Nations is warning that a potentially record-breaking El Niño weather event could hammer global economies in 2024, with the World Meteorological Organization calling it one of the most powerful cycles seen in decades. Scientists say the phenomenon, already developing in the Pacific Ocean, has a strong chance of intensifying well beyond typical levels — and governments are scrambling to prepare.
What the WMO is saying
The WMO issued its alert after ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific climbed more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above average — a threshold that historically signals significant downstream disruption. Officials described the emerging pattern as potentially “supersized,” a term that’s turning heads in meteorological circles. The last comparable event, in 2015-16, caused an estimated $5.7 trillion in damage and economic losses globally over the following five years, according to a study published in the journal Science.
“We are entering uncharted territory,” said a senior WMO climate official. “The combination of El Niño and background warming from climate change means we simply can’t rely on historical patterns to predict what comes next.”
Which regions face the biggest risks
The impacts won’t be uniform. East Africa and South Asia are likely to see above-average rainfall, raising flood risk in countries already dealing with fragile infrastructure. Australia, southern Africa and parts of South America, meanwhile, face the opposite problem — prolonged drought conditions that could devastate crops and strain water supplies for millions of people. Indonesia and the Philippines are particularly exposed, with forecasters warning of a higher fire danger across agricultural zones that feed much of Southeast Asia.
Food prices are the immediate concern for economists. Wheat, rice and maize production could all take significant hits if the event plays out at the upper end of projections.
How countries are responding
Some governments didn’t wait for the formal WMO warning to start acting. Peru, burned badly by the 1997-98 El Niño — still one of the strongest on record — began strengthening coastal flood defenses earlier this year. India’s government has convened emergency meetings between its meteorological department and agricultural ministries, reviewing reservoir levels and crop insurance schemes ahead of the monsoon season. In California, state officials are weighing whether an unusually wet winter this year provided enough groundwater recharge to offset what could be an extremely hot, dry summer.
Still, critics argue that global preparation remains woefully inadequate, particularly in lower-income nations with limited early warning systems.
What happens next
The WMO says it expects the event to peak between October 2024 and February 2025. That’s a long window of uncertainty, and the actual severity depends on factors that even the most sophisticated models struggle to pin down. But forecasters are leaning toward a significant event, not a minor blip.
The coming months will test how seriously the international community learned from past El Niño cycles — and whether better forecasting tools have actually translated into smarter preparation on the ground.
