EU billions deepening divide across Western Balkans nations

The European Union’s massive investment push into the Western Balkans is producing winners and losers — and the gap between them is growing fast. New data on the bloc’s €6 billion Growth Plan for the region reveals a stark divergence between countries racing toward Brussels and those barely moving.

Serbia and Albania pull ahead

Serbia and Albania have emerged as the frontrunners in accessing EU pre-accession funds, having satisfied a greater share of reform benchmarks tied to disbursements. Serbia secured roughly €1.75 billion in commitments under the new framework, while Albania has made tangible progress on rule-of-law reforms that Brussels demands before releasing tranches. Both countries have functional technical bodies processing EU paperwork, something their neighbors can’t always say.

And that institutional capacity matters enormously. The funds don’t just arrive — governments have to earn them, benchmark by benchmark.

Bosnia and Kosovo lag dangerously behind

Bosnia and Herzegovina is in a different situation entirely. Political deadlock between its three constituent peoples has stalled basic legislative reforms, leaving significant EU funding sitting on the table. Kosovo, meanwhile, faces its own complications, including non-recognition by five EU member states, which complicates formal agreement structures even when Pristina’s government is willing.

A senior EU official familiar with the Growth Plan process put it plainly: “The money is there. It’s the political will and administrative capacity that determines who benefits.”

North Macedonia and Montenegro sit somewhere in the middle — both official EU candidates with open accession chapters, yet both struggling with persistent corruption issues that have caused the Commission to slow-walk certain payments. Montenegro has been a candidate since 2012. That’s over a decade of process with membership still nowhere in sight.

What the two-speed dynamic actually means

The practical consequences are significant. Countries absorbing EU investment are building highways, modernizing energy grids, and digitizing public services. Those that aren’t are watching the infrastructure gap widen. Foreign investors notice. So do young workers deciding whether to stay or emigrate to Vienna or Frankfurt.

The region lost an estimated 200,000 people to emigration in 2023 alone, according to regional demographic trackers. That’s not a statistic — it’s a slow-motion crisis that EU funding was partly meant to address.

Brussels aware but options are limited

EU officials insist the Growth Plan is designed precisely to break this logjam by front-loading incentives rather than dangling membership as a distant carrot. But critics argue that without genuine political pressure on laggards, the plan risks cementing inequality rather than resolving it.

The next major review of reform compliance is expected in early 2025, when the Commission will decide on the second round of disbursements. Countries that missed first-round benchmarks will have a narrow window to catch up — or fall further behind.

The Western Balkans have been promised EU membership for over twenty years. Whether these billions finally change that story, or simply reveal how uneven the journey has become, won’t be clear for some time yet.