Germany tobacco tax hike to push cigarette packs toward €12

Germany’s Bundestag has voted to gradually increase tobacco taxes, a move that will push the price of a standard pack of 20 cigarettes from around €8.05 today to €11.36 by 2030. Some premium brands could cost up to €14. Hand-rolling tobacco will also become significantly more expensive.

Tax increases and revenue targets

The price will rise step by step: €8.77 from 2027, €9.56 from 2028, €10.42 from 2029, and €11.36 from 2030. The government aims to generate an additional €12 billion over four years, with revenue from tobacco duty expected to climb to €4.5 billion annually by 2030. Last year, tobacco duty brought in €17.6 billion.

But the tobacco industry doubts these targets. It warns that higher taxes could drive smokers to the black market or to cheaper cigarettes from other EU countries, hitting legal retailers hardest. CDU MP Carsten Brodesser called for more moderate increases, arguing that steeper hikes risk lower tax revenues and adverse effects on legal tobacco trade. His proposal was not adopted.

During the Bundestag debate, SPD MP Ingo Vogel said the reform was partly to help balance the budget, but also had a public health objective—making nicotine less attractive. He welcomed that taxes on cigars and cigarillos would not rise as sharply as previously planned. Taxes on e-cigarette liquids were increased slightly more than expected. Vogel said, “Inexpensive products, in particular, should not become an easy gateway to nicotine consumption, which is why we are raising the price threshold in this area.”

Vogel also said concerns by customs officials and unions about a rise in the black market were taken “very, very seriously,” adding, “we will not only lose out financially, but we will also have to deal more with criminal networks.” The far-right AfD criticised the increase. MP Christian Douglas called it a contradiction: the government justifies taxes on public health grounds while expecting revenues to increase, suggesting the coalition does not actually expect tobacco consumption to fall. The Greens support higher tobacco tax in principle but consider the planned increases too small.

According to a 2025 microcensus, about 19% of people aged 15 and over in Germany smoke—14% regularly and 5% occasionally. The German Cancer Research Centre says around 131,000 people died from tobacco-related illnesses in 2023. Health experts regard higher prices as an effective way to encourage quitting. On Friday, the Bundesrat will vote on the amendment to the tobacco tax law. No objections are currently anticipated, and the increase is expected to be approved.