Trump warns Iran ‘not to get cute’ over Pickaxe Mountain activity

President Donald Trump issued a blunt warning to Iran on Wednesday, saying the United States is considering strikes on Pickaxe Mountain and telling Tehran it had better not “get cute” with whatever it’s doing at the site. The remarks came during a tense press briefing and marked one of the sharpest direct threats from the White House since the conflict escalated.

What Trump actually said

Standing outside the Oval Office, Trump didn’t mince words. “They know what I mean,” he told reporters when pressed for specifics. “Don’t get cute. We’re watching.” He declined to describe the exact activity detected at Pickaxe Mountain, but senior defense officials confirmed the U.S. has been monitoring unusual movement there for at least 11 days. The site, located in a mountainous region of northwestern Iran, is believed to house hardened underground facilities.

It’s the kind of warning Trump has used before — vague enough to preserve military options, sharp enough to send a message.

Oil prices and the midterm problem

Trump also acknowledged something his economic team has been quietly dreading. Oil prices, which have climbed roughly 23 percent since the conflict began, probably won’t fall back to pre-war levels before the 2026 midterm elections. “I wish I could say differently,” Trump said. “But the market does what the market does.”

That’s a significant political liability. Gas prices at the pump are already averaging $4.17 per gallon nationally, up from $3.21 in January. Republican strategists have privately flagged energy costs as one of their biggest vulnerabilities heading into next year’s congressional races.

A conflict that could outlast Trump’s term

Behind the scenes, the picture is even more complicated. Advisors to the president have warned in internal briefings that the Iran conflict could drag on through the remainder of his presidency — potentially into 2029. That assessment is based on Iran’s capacity to absorb strikes while maintaining proxy operations across the region.

“We’re not looking at a quick resolution,” one senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The variables here don’t point toward a short timeline.”

So far, the administration has publicly resisted framing this as a long war. But those internal estimates are hard to square with the optimistic language coming out of the West Wing.

What comes next

Congress is being briefed on the Pickaxe Mountain situation in closed sessions this week. Senate Armed Services Committee members are expected to receive a classified update Thursday, though it’s unclear whether any authorization vote is imminent.

Iran’s foreign ministry issued a statement Wednesday calling Trump’s comments “reckless provocation” but stopped short of an explicit military threat in response.

The next 72 hours are likely to be telling. If U.S. satellite imagery shows continued activity at Pickaxe Mountain, military planners will almost certainly present Trump with strike options. Whether he takes them — and when — is the question nobody in Washington can answer right now.