Latvia exit polls show United List leading, populists gain ground

Exit polls in Latvia’s parliamentary election put the centrist United List in first place with 35.6 percent, according to public broadcaster LSM. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, speaking at party headquarters in Riga, said: “It’s remarkably good. I was not expecting such result.”

The populist Latvia First party came second with 11.3 percent, nearly double its 2022 result. Kulbergs said on Saturday he would refuse to cooperate with any pro-Russian parties, naming Latvia First specifically.

Security dominates campaign

Concerns over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living crisis shaped the campaign. Latvia, a key pillar of NATO’s eastern defensive flank, has widespread support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. A Western diplomat in Riga said: “The stance towards Russia is the main reason for Latvians’ Western, NATO and European anchoring.”

Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, said defence and security would be the priority. There is broad consensus on military spending of nearly 5 percent of GDP and support for Ukraine, with few dissenting voices.

Economic worries boost populists

Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic States by living standards. Growth is sluggish, and voters cite cost of living, healthcare and public finances. Regional disparities are stark: around Riga, GDP per capita was 101 percent of the European average in 2024, but in other regions it does not exceed 50 percent.

In Latgale, the easternmost region, depopulation is accelerating and economic opportunity is scarce. Aigars Soikants, 30, from Daugavpils, said: “There isn’t enough work. People are leaving.” He plans to back a centrist or right-wing party that acts in the country’s interest.

Populist parties benefited from economic worries. Sovereign Power, critical of aid to Ukraine and military spending, polled at 9 percent. Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, also polled at 9 percent and could become an indispensable coalition partner. Political analyst Sigita Struberga said the big question is whether the United List will cooperate with Slesers’ party.

Coalition talks ahead

The current governing coalition of United List, New Unity, Union of Greens and Farmers, and National Alliance is expected to be weakened. Polls suggested the bloc was unlikely to retain power in its current form. Partial results were expected Saturday evening, with preliminary official results on Sunday.