China warns citizens to leave Eswatini over security risks
China has issued an unusual travel advisory urging its nationals to leave Eswatini, the small southern African kingdom that remains one of only 12 countries in the world — and the sole African nation — to maintain formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. The warning, posted by China’s embassy in a neighboring country that handles its regional affairs, cited unspecified “security risks” and encouraged Chinese citizens to depart as soon as possible.
What the advisory actually says
The advisory doesn’t point to any specific incident or imminent threat inside Eswatini, a landlocked nation of roughly 1.2 million people squeezed between South Africa and Mozambique. That vagueness has raised eyebrows among analysts watching the region. Beijing routinely frames such warnings in broad terms, but the timing — coming amid renewed pressure on Taiwan’s few remaining allies — has struck many observers as more than coincidental. It’s a pattern China has used before.
Chinese officials have not elaborated publicly on what, exactly, constitutes the risk. Still, the message was clear enough to anyone paying attention to the broader geopolitical picture.
Eswatini’s lonely position as Taiwan’s African ally
Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, switched its name in 2018 under King Mswati III but kept its alliance with Taipei. That relationship, which stretches back decades, has made the tiny kingdom a persistent irritant for Beijing. China’s position is unambiguous: any country that wants full diplomatic and trade relations with Beijing must cut ties with Taiwan. Eswatini has so far refused.
Taiwan has invested significantly in Eswatini over the years, funding hospitals, agricultural programs, and infrastructure projects. The two sides maintain a full ambassadorial relationship, something Beijing views as a direct challenge to its “One China” policy.
A regional security analyst familiar with Beijing’s diplomatic tactics said the move fits a recognizable playbook. “When China wants to apply pressure on a small country without making an overt diplomatic demand, travel advisories and economic signals are standard tools,” the analyst noted.
What this means for Taiwan’s shrinking circle
Taiwan’s list of formal allies has dwindled sharply over the past decade. In 2016, it had 22 diplomatic partners. Today it has 12. Countries like Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Solomon Islands have all flipped to Beijing in recent years, often lured by promises of infrastructure investment and debt relief.
Eswatini has held out. But the economic math is brutal — China is a vastly larger trade and investment partner for most of the region, and Eswatini is not immune to that pressure.
Beijing’s latest move won’t force an immediate break. But it signals that China isn’t done tightening the screws.
What happens next
Eswatini’s government has not yet issued a formal response to the Chinese advisory. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it was monitoring the situation closely and remained committed to its partnership with Gaborone. Whether Eswatini holds the line or eventually joins the long list of former Taiwan allies who switched sides could become a defining diplomatic test of 2025.
