Montenegro warns EU credibility at stake in 2025 accession push
Montenegro is sounding the alarm. Senior officials in Podgorica say the European Union’s reputation as a serious enlargement partner hangs on whether it delivers concrete progress on Western Balkan membership bids in 2025 — and they’re not mincing words about the consequences of failure.
A credibility crisis in the making
The small Adriatic nation, which opened accession negotiations back in 2012 and has long been considered the frontrunner among the six Western Balkan candidates, says Brussels has repeatedly moved the goalposts. Patience in the region is wearing thin. Montenegro has closed 33 of the 33 negotiating chapters it has opened, but the finish line keeps shifting, tied now to sweeping rule-of-law benchmarks that critics say were introduced mid-race.
“If the EU doesn’t make good on its enlargement promises next year, it won’t just lose Montenegro’s trust — it’ll lose the entire region,” a senior Montenegrin government official told reporters in Brussels last week. “That’s not a threat. That’s just the reality on the ground.”
Why 2025 is the critical year
The stakes are tied directly to the new European Commission’s first full year in office under Ursula von der Leyen’s second term. A new enlargement commissioner has been handed a portfolio that is — finally — being treated as a geopolitical priority rather than an afterthought. But good intentions haven’t yet translated into a clear roadmap or a firm date.
Montenegro wants a formal closing benchmark date by mid-2025. Officials in Podgorica point out that the country has implemented over 4,000 pieces of EU legislation, restructured its judiciary, and passed sweeping anti-corruption laws — all at considerable domestic political cost.
Still, the EU keeps asking for more.
Geopolitics adding pressure
The urgency isn’t just bureaucratic. Russia’s war in Ukraine fundamentally changed how European capitals talk about enlargement. Countries like Montenegro — a NATO member since 2017 — argue they’ve already demonstrated where they stand. And yet the membership door stays half-open.
Serbia’s continued flirtation with Moscow and Budapest’s obstruction of broader EU decision-making have complicated the picture for everyone in the Western Balkans. Montenegro doesn’t want to be punished for its neighbors’ choices, and officials there are increasingly vocal about that frustration.
There’s also a demographic argument that rarely makes headlines. Montenegro’s population has hovered around 620,000 for years. Young, educated Montenegrins are leaving for EU countries at an accelerating rate. Full membership, officials argue, is the only structural fix.
What comes next
The European Commission is expected to release a fresh enlargement package assessment in spring 2025. That report will be watched closely in Podgorica, Tirana, and Sarajevo alike. If it contains firm timelines and not just praise for “progress made,” the region may cautiously exhale.
But if it’s another round of carefully worded encouragement with no binding commitments, Montenegro’s warnings about EU credibility won’t just echo in Brussels briefing rooms — they’ll resonate across a region that’s been waiting, in some cases, for two decades.
